Macro Forum: The Street View

MOROCCO MACRO INSIGHTS

 

 

Economic growth slowed to an estimated 2.8% in 2018 from 4.1% in 2017. The decline was due to the agricultural sector slowing from 13% to 2.9% from 2017 to 2018. The non-agricultural sector was also subdued with declines in both the phosphate and construction sectors. However, foreign demand for goods has been good due to robust growth in the automotive sector among others. GDP growth is forecast at 2.8% and 3.3% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

Domestic demand was supported by improved consumer credit, which in turn likely influenced stronger household consumption in Q4 2018. Consumption growth for 2018 was 3.5%, slightly down by 0.5% from 2017. This can be ascribed to an increase in inflationary pressures from the previous year, however, inflation remains low with inflation remaining unchanged at 1.1% year-on-year in October 2018. Food prices contracted and declined by 0.8% year-on-year in October to 2% from 2.1% the month before. Inflation is estimated at 1.8% in 2018 and forecast at 1.9% in 2019. The central Bank, Bank al Maghrib, maintained interest rates at 2.25% at the Monetary Policy Meeting held in December. This has been the level since March 2016.

The MAD depreciated 1.2% in the fourth quarter from MAD 9.44 to MAD9.56 to the US$.

Data

Real GDP Growth

Source: International Monetary Fund

Morocco FX vs FV

Source: Bloomberg Spot Prices and Actis methodology for Fundamental Value

Inflation

Source: International Monetary Fund

Contact

Sherif Elkholy

Please contact Sherif Elkholy by email at selkholy@act.is

ELECTION STATUS

Prime Minister
Saadeddine Othmani
Party
PJD
Last Election
07/10/16
Next Election
2020 TBD

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