Macro Forum: The Street View

KENYA MACRO INSIGHTS

Kenya Image

The outlook for Kenya’s economic activity remains robust with a range of sectors continuing to expand and moderate inflation. In October of 2019, the Kenyan government announced a repeal of an interest rate lending cap, which had curtailed growth in private credit and the mortgage market. In addition to redressing private lending, the move has been well received by the IMF, who hinted at the potential for a new precautionary stand-by arrangement, adding to the economy’s insulation from exogenous shocks. Meanwhile, inflation is projected to remain low, increasing slightly to 5% in 2020, from 3% at the end of 2019. Interest rates are forecast to trend towards 10% in 2020 from a 22% peak in 2018, and over 15% last year, providing support to growth over the near term.

 

 

 

Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
GDP* 5.3% 5.2% 5.5%
Inflation* 5.7% 3.83% 5.82% 5.51%

* Year on Year

 

Data

Real GDP Growth

Source: International Monetary Fund

Kenya FX vs FV

Source: Bloomberg Spot Prices and Actis methodology for Fundamental Value

Inflation

Source: International Monetary Fund