Macro Forum: The Street View

NIGERIA MACRO INSIGHTS

 The key challenge to Buhari is to deliver on key reforms that eluded him in the first term. The President has been quick to act, signalling long-mooted reforms in the oil and gas sector through sale of the government’s share in joint ventures with international oil companies. If this plan is executed, it will help plug budget shortfalls and accelerate re-forms in the oil and gas sector. Reforms in the power sector also remain crucial for the government. The Power Sector Recovery Program, a holistic World Bank-backed plan to tackle key sector issues, remains stalled, pending ministerial appointments. This will need to be a priority for the government in its new term. While the government continues to take shortterm actions, in conjunction with the Central Bank, to release much needed funding to support the sector, a comprehensive and sustainable plan is still required. Policies to diversify the country away from its dependency on oil and gas, create employment, and tackle corruption will likely continue to be the focus in the second administration – these will need to happen along-side reforms in the power sector. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
GDP* 2.4% 2.0%
Inflation* 11.44% 11.3% 11.2%
Benchmark Interest Rate 14% 13.5% 13.5%
Benchmark Bond Yield** 7.4% 5.4% 4.7%
Stock Market Index** 31430.5 31041.4 30531.7

* Year on Year

** End of Month

Data

Real GDP Growth

Source: International Monetary Fund

Nigeria FX vs FV

Source: Bloomberg Spot Price and Actis methodology for Fundamental Value

Inflation

Source: International Monetary Fund