Macro Forum: The Street View


South Africa Image


South Africa stands at the other side of the political spectrum, with May elections contributing to enduring policy uncertainty. Incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa was victorious, but a weaker mandate may disrupt the continuity of economic reforms and delay the reversal of lacklustre economic forecasts. Of particular importance in 2019 will be whether Moody’s decides to maintain South Africa’ s sovereign rating at investment grade given the recent bailout of the state power company, Eskom, for which the state is guarantor to growing liabilities





Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
GDP* 1.1% 0% 0.9%
Inflation** 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Benchmark Interest Rate** 6.75% 6.75% 6.5%
Benchmark Bond Yield** 9.3% 9.2% 8.8%
Stock Market Index** 52736.86 56462.6 57109.6

* Year on Year

** End of Month


Real GDP Growth

Source: International Monetary Fund

South Africa FX vs FV

Source: Bloomberg Spot Price and Actis methodology for Fundamental Value


Source: International Monetary Fund