Macro Forum: The Street View

SOUTH AFRICA MACRO INSIGHTS

South Africa Image

 

In South Africa, rolling blackouts reached an unprecedented level in December. More than a quarter of the country’s generating capacity broke down due to ongoing restructuring of the embattled state energy company. Large platinum and gold miners and multiple other sectors of the economy were forced to shut down, which is expected to significantly reduce growth in 2020. Due to the related pressure on fiscal balances, a potential downgrade of Moody’s sovereign credit rating to junk continues to present further downside risk. The economy is expected to see some improvement in the second half of 2020 however, driven by increasingly favourable monetary conditions, supporting an overdue turnaround in private consumption and fixed investment.

 

 

 

 

Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
GDP* 0.9% 0.1% -0.5%
Inflation* 4.5% 4.1% 4% 4.1%

* Year on Year

 

Data

Real GDP Growth

Source: International Monetary Fund

South Africa FX vs FV

Source: Bloomberg Spot Price and Actis methodology for Fundamental Value

Inflation

Source: International Monetary Fund