Skip to main content

Latest edition

Structurally Challenged

Ewen Cameron Watt, Editor-in-Chief, Macro Forum, Actis, London

Dr. Joonas Taras, Investment Principal, Macro, Actis, London London

What

  • Heavily indebted countries with limited debt service capabilities
  • Small financial systems (excl. Türkiye)
  • Young fast-growing population

Who

  • Egypt
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Türkiye

Characteristics

  • High nominal debt costs
  • Negative real rates
  • Higher inflation
  • Domestic currency distrusted as store of value
  • Low import cover
  • Low transparency/rule of law
  • Misery Index high

Where We Stand Today

Egypt

Egypt Flag
  • April 2023 inflation 30.6%, down from 32.7% in March 2023
  • Interest rate 18.25%, up 1,000bps since January 2022
  • GDP growth 6.6% in 2022, a relative outperformer
  • Egyptian pound trading at 30.9 per USD, 68% weaker than a year ago
  • In the middle of a structural adjustment programme with IMF. Still needs to show credible commitment to reform and FX flexibility

Ghana

Ghana Flag
  • April 2023 inflation 41.2%, down from 54.1% in December 2022
  • Interest rate 29.5%, up 1,500bps since January 2022
  • GDP growth 3.2% in 2022
  • Cedi trading at 10.7 per USD, 38% weaker than a year ago
  • Effectively defaulted on debt with IMF negotiations on going. Elevated government and external debt ratios

Kenya

Kenya Flag
  • April 2023 inflation 7.9%, down from 9.6% in October 2022
  • Interest rate 9.5%, up 250bps since January 2022
  • GDP growth 5.4% in 2022
  • Shilling trading at 137.6 per USD, 18% weaker than a year ago
  • Domestic funding challenges remain material but relationship with multilateral agencies constructive

Nigeria

Nigeria Flag
  • April 2023 inflation 22.2% and yet to peak this cycle
  • Interest rate 18.5%, up 700bps since January 2022
  • GDP growth 3.3% in 2022
  • Naira official trading at 462.5, 11% weaker than a year ago
  • Record rates and inflation levels but little relief in sight. Productive capacity is constrained and oil price decline could spell more trouble

Türkiye

Turkey Flag
  • April 2023 inflation 43.7%, down from 85.5% in October 2022
  • Interest rate 8.5%, down 550bps since January 2022
  • GDP growth 5.6% in 2022
  • Lira trading at 19.6, 28% weaker than a year ago
  • After Erdogan’s victory the strategy of promoting nominal GDP is likely to continue; further devaluation and domestic currency banking system risks remain material

Source: Bloomberg LP for consumer prices, interest rates and exchange rates. International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database (April 2023) for real GDP growth figures in 2022. Exchange rates as of May 22, 2023 and interest rates as of June 7, 2023.

More from Latest edition

Making the Actis Connection
Company Voice: An Phat Holdings, Vietnam
Company Voice: Argo Energy, Korea
Company Voice: BluPine Energy, India
Company Voice: Emicool, Dubai
Company Voice: HRZ Transmissoras, Brazil