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Latest edition

Supply Chain Heroes

Ewen Cameron Watt, Editor-in-Chief, Macro Forum, Actis, London

Dr. Joonas Taras, Investment Principal, Macro, Actis, London London

What

  • Significant and sustained non-natural resources FDI
  • China+1 winners
  • Increasing role in supply chains
  • Lower volatility FX
  • Financial systems deepening

Who

  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

Characteristics

  • Rising investment opportunity set
  • Fast growing population
  • Improving educational attainment
  • Declining currency and bond volatility
  • Deepening financial systems

Where We Stand Today

Malaysia

Malaysia Flag
  • March 2023 inflation 3.4%, down from 4.7% in August 2022
  • Interest rate 3.0%, up 125bps since January 2022
  • GDP growth 8.7% in 2022, an outperformer
  • Ringgit trading at 4.54 per USD, 3% weaker than a year ago
  • A relative success over last decade with sound banking and financial institutions

Philippines

Phillipines Flag
  • April 2023 inflation 6.6%, down from 8.7% in January 2023
  • Interest rate 6.25%, up 425bps since January 2022
  • GDP growth 7.6% in 2022, an outperformer
  • Philippine peso trading at 55.68 per USD, 6% weaker than a year ago
  • Relatively stable macro picture despite some balance of payment constraints

Thailand

Thailand Flag
  • April 2023 inflation 2.7%, down from 7.9% in August 2022
  • Interest rate 2.0%, up 150bps since January 2022
  • GDP growth 2.6% in 2022, and accelerating this year
  • Baht trading at 33.7 per USD, 3% stronger than a year ago
  • Well-positioned to benefit from China+1 with a long export manufacturing tradition; baht is a fairly stable currency, tipped to benefit from tourism recovery

Vietnam

Vietnam Flag
  • April 2023 inflation 2.8%, down from 4.9% in January 2023
  • Interest rates 6%, up 200bps since January 2022
  • GDP growth 8% in 2022, an outperformer
  • Dong trading at 23,469 per USD, flat compared to a year ago
  • Key winner of China+1 story with a low volatility, slowly depreciating currency. FDI inflows of $1.5-2.5bn every month

Source: Bloomberg LP for consumer prices, interest rates and exchange rates. International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database (April 2023) for real GDP growth figures in 2022 and 2023f. Exchange rates as of May 22, 2023 and interest rates as of June 7, 2023.

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